Padres Starting Rotation Shows Different Tendencies In Recent Successful Starts

July was not the kindest of months for the San Diego Padres. The Padres managed to go only 11-14 (44 W-L%) in that month which was the worst so far this season. Hitting has been an issue at times for the Friars, but the pitching that was once carrying this team literally did not perform as a team combined 4.70 ERA was posted in July. This read will just narrow down the pitching woes on the starting rotation since it has been heavily depended on in prior months while the bullpen still manages to do well. With a new month already in the works, San Diego understands that some changes had to be made. Not changes involving trades since the deadline has passed, but instead switching up the pitch mix. Let's break it down for the starters.

Yu Darvish (7-6 W-L, 3.43 ERA, 22 GS, 128.2 IP, 154 SO)

Darvish has been the Padres ace since Opening Day... literally! By pitching on the first day of the regular season against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Petco Park, Darvish has made himself the clear number one starter with his approach on the mound. The moment he was acquired by San Diego, I had a feeling he would be the one, as much as I believe in Blake Snell, I think that Darvish gives that veteran presence plus just adds more of a variety in all the pitches he can throw and even how fast he wants to throw them. It has been a very solid year for the 5x All-Star pitcher, but July was very rough to watch him perform on the mound. Darvish put up a 7.36 ERA without recording a win (0-4 in 5 starts) in that month.

In 2021, Darvish can throw in most cases the cutter (37.8%), slider (23.3%), 4-seam (20%), curveball (7.7%), sinker (6.6%) and splitter (4.7%). Since 2019, Darvish has slowly made the cutter his primary pitch and rightfully so. In baseball, it is not always about speed and how fast a pitch can go from the mound to the catcher's mitt. Prior to 2019, Darvish threw his cutter too hard at just around 89 mph. Instead of trying to have it blow by hitters in which it did not much since it stayed flat, throwing it slower and with more accuracy made it a deadlier pitch and eventually made it his primary one. Now just being thrown around 86 mph, Darvish has been excellent with the signature cutter in 2019 and 2020. It has been hit 52 times this season with opponents hitting it at a .321 average, but the pitch selection for Darvish is off the charts and August has now shown some differences.

I understand we are barely into this month but it is still interesting to see the slightest changes in our players. With that being said, Darvish has recently pitched against the Diamondbacks again which was on August 7th. He looked like vintage Yu Darvish all over again and that was a much needed start for him. 7 innings, 4 hits allowed, 2 earned runs, no walks and 12 strikeouts! (Also, congratulations to Darvish and Snell as well for making history and being the first Padres ever to go back-to-back starts with 12+ strikeouts in starts.) One start but such a difference even against the mediocre Snakes. Darvish changed up his pitch mix and it worked. Rather than relying on the cutter, it was the slider that became the devastating pitch. His slider was thrown 36.6% (34 times) and was with more control and bite only being clocked at 80 mph with movement. In July, that slider was thrown around 82 mph and getting hit hard. In addition, Darvish faced a heavy left-handed lineup in which he threw the slider 29 times to lefties and only 5 to righties. As for the cutter, 22 to lefties and 6 to righties. If Darvish can use those two pitches but with more control, he is in good hands.

Blake Snell (6-4 W-L, 4.86 ERA, 21 GS, 96.1 IP, 124 SO)

If anyone needs help pitching this season it is Blake Snell. He has gotten better recently but it has to stay consistent for this team to truly contend. Snell has always had the same four pitches in his arsenal. This season, Snell throws a four-seam (51%), slider (22.8%), curveball (13.5%) and a changeup (12.7%). Snell has made two very solid starts this month which has helped him for what has been a bad season. Snell already has issued 61 walks with the highest being 64 in his Cy Young winning season but did pitch a total of 180.2 innings.

In two starts this month, Snell has looked like the pitcher that the Padres expected the moment they traded for him. He had a bounce back start against the Oakland A's who had him give up 7 runs in Petco Park. This time on the road, Snell went 5 innings, 1 earned run, 3 walks and 6 strikeouts. Solid for a former Cy Young winner who has struggled to pitch mentally. Snell threw 76 fastballs in that start. That pitch was used 72.4% of the time while the slider was second at 20% but was not working. In his second start against Arizona, Snell changed things up slightly. He threw more sliders than he did fastballs. 53 total sliders to 52 fastballs were thrown in his start. Only a difference of one but the fact that a career 22.8% slider user threw that pitch for the most part and stayed back on his heavily used fastball is pretty impressive and shows commitment to get better this season for the Padres.

There is still work to do for Snell though. I have said it previously in Snell blogs that his changeup has been his own worst enemy. Throwing harder does not mean better results. From 2016 to 2019, Snell's changeup was working and it was having hitters look foolish. It was thrown around 85-86 mph and just had more of a bite to it that made it useful. In fact, that pitch was not his last choice to his other three until the shortened 2020 season. Now, Snell throws it harder in which it stays flat like a fastball at 88 mph or more. If Snell can go back to what he used to throw in his previous years, he will have all four pitches to log more innings and be in the top of the rotation. But who knows, you could argue that less is more in this case. If Snell can just keep up the nice break on that slider and the zip on that 4-seam fastball, you do not want to face the Padres in the postseason.

Ryan Weathers (4-4 W-L, 4.26 ERA, 14 GS, 69.2 IP, 49 SO)

The #5 prospect for the San Diego Padres has been a treat to watch since the 2020 playoffs as Weathers made his debut against the hated Los Angeles Dodgers. I am a huge fan of this kid. First of all, he is a left-handed pitcher. Second, he has so much confidence on the mound for a 21-year old prospect and that is impressive. Weathers relies on four pitches: 4-seam (41.1%), slider (30.7%), sinker (20.2%) and a sprinkle of the changeup at 8%. The early months of April and May worked out beautifully for Weathers as he managed to hold an ERA of 0.55 and 2.00 in six combined starts. However, since June, he has been easily readable for batters.

He is young and there is a lot to learn since the big leagues is a game of survival. But I strongly believe Weathers can figure it out with the players that are around him as they can teach him certain fundamentals. I can grasp Snell's case for being a two-pitch pitcher temporarily, but for Weathers I do not see it at a young age he has to get more experience. After already being sent down to Triple-A El Paso to limit his innings just like what the team did with Chris Paddack before, I would not be surprised if San Diego did it again due to his ERA taking a beating. However, the rotation will have to stay consistent and healthy for the Padres to even think about doing that and with Paddack being placed on the 10-day IL, San Diego can not afford making that move yet.

I think this kid brings really good things to the table and I think manager Jayce Tinger is going to have to realize that. The longest Weathers ever went into a game was 5.2 innings against the Dodgers way back on April 16th. For Tingler, stop treating this young kid so carefully and when Weathers is dealing, keep him out there and do not waste the bullpen which has been reliable but used the most in the majors. That is the next step. Weathers has thrown more sinkers in a tough comeback loss to the Diamondbacks as his slider and fastball were rocked hard. I like what the changeup has done however in that start as it was clocked at 83 mph and not what was usually 86 mph. Just like Snell, get that fourth pitch and gain the confidence to use it in crucial situations. Weathers is on this list despite the struggles because he can snap out of this pitching funk. He was doing fine until a 6-run fourth came into play for Arizona. Go back to film in the earlier months, see your pitch mix and those ballooned numbers will drop like a rock.

Joe Musgrove (8-7 W-L, 2.81 ERA, 22 GS, 128.1 IP, 147 SO)

Musgrove has been an absolute steal since the Padres acquired him. The San Diego native made Padres history as he threw the first no-hitter in Padres history! That is still so amazing to say. For Joe-No, he has improved a ton since the 2020 season with his pitch selection and just better numbers against his opponents. Musgrove's pitch repertoire includes a slider (30.2%), curveball (21.8%), cutter (18.5%), 4-seam (16.6%), sinker (6.9%) and a changeup (6.2%).

In 2020, Musgrove relied on his fastball as the primary pitch. But his slider has had tremendous movement to it as it took over the role. In fact. the 4-seamer has now dipped to a third pitch option since Musgrove has been going with a breaking ball approach. He has thrown the fastball a total of 342 times this year, but it ranks fourth as the slider, curve and cutter take over. This is a good change as his slider only has a .142 BAA while the curve is even better with a .084 BAA. Those numbers are out of this world especially since they are the top two pitches thrown. Musgrove has depended on the slider and curve to get hitters swinging and missing as the regular and cutting fastball has been hit this season around the .290 mark. 113 of 147 strikeouts from Musgrove have come from either breaking ball. Do not be surprised if you see more of those in future starts. I can see a decrease in the speed pitches as Musgrove's spin rate on both off-speed is the best in his career so far with both being over 2700 rpm. Out of all the starting rotation struggles in July, Musgrove was the best in that department. A 3.95 ERA while giving up 29 hits and 13 runs, the Padres at least got some productive innings from one starter.

Now it is time to move on and make it a successful August which can make or break a season for teams. The pitching has been excellent, the hitting has been consistent and clutch at times when it is needed most and that is the Padres team we have witnessed and want to keep seeing since 2020. The pitching has carried this team big time this year and pitchers go through slumps too just like hitters, but it just shows how important it is to have everything working. With newcomers on this team it has been fun and it is also a learning experience for them. I believe in Blake Snell and Ryan Weathers. I know Yu Darvish is the ace on this team and that Joe Musgrove can go out there any day and pitch seven shutout innings. This team just had a rough stretch and they are flipping the script quickly this month. Take advantage of this easy schedule in August because San Diego has the hardest schedule coming up right after. Prove the haters wrong and keep up the solid pitching that has been there all season.